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Viticultural Information

Winegrape Production Outlook

Most commentators anticipate winegrape production in the near future will be strongly influenced by water allocations which are expected to remain under pressure, particularly in the Murray-Darling Basin.

According to the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), winegrape production is projected to increase in 2009-10 by 14% relative to 2008-09, to 1.8 million tonnes (Table 8). This forecast is based on the assumption that the availability of water for irrigation will improve somewhat but remain a constraint on production in warm climate regions. The projection also assumes there will not be a repeat of the extremely hot weather conditions experienced in 2008-09. The average yield of winegrapes is forecast to be 10.8 tonnes per hectare in 2009-10, and the bearing area of vines is forecast to be 169,000 hectares.

Continuing this trend, winegrape production in 2010-11 is expected to increase by 5% relative to 2009-10, to 1.9 million tonnes. This projection reflects a small increase in the bearing area of vines and an increase in the average yield of grapes to 11.1 tonnes per hectare, as grapegrowing conditions improve further.

Red winegrapes are expected to account for the majority of winegrapes produced in Australia throughout the projection period. This reflects the larger bearing area of red winegrape varieties in Australia, which is sufficient to offset the generally lower yields of red winegrapes.

Because of the slightly faster expected growth of white winegrape bearing areas over the projection period, ABARE expects that the proportion of red winegrapes will decline slightly over the next three years, from 54% in 2007-08 to 52% in 2010-11. Shiraz is expected to remain the highest-volume winegrape variety produced in Australia throughout the projection period. Chardonnay is expected to be the next largest variety, followed by Cabernet Sauvignon. Collectively, these three varieties are expected to account for 60% of total Australian winegrape production in 2010-11, similar to the 61% they accounted for in 2007-08. ABARE expects that Merlot and Semillon will remain the next largest varieties produced in Australia, followed by Sauvignon Blanc. In the projection period, Sauvignon Blanc production is expected to increase the most of any major variety, which reflects recent plantings.

In 2009-10, assuming that the availability of water for irrigation improves somewhat and there are no extreme weather events, production in all states and the ACT is expected to increase as yields rise (Table 9). ABARE expects that this trend will continue in 2010-11, when they project that yields will return to historical averages.

Table 8. Estimated and projected winegrape production in Australia, by variety

Estimated
production

Projected production

07-08 kt

08-09 kt

09-10 kt

10-11 kt

Premium white

Chardonnay

428

363

412

432

Chenin blanc

9

8

9

10

Colombard

59

51

60

66

Muscadelle

1

1

1

1

Pinot Gris

26

26

31

29

Riesling

39

34

37

40

Sauvignon Blanc

62

55

67

73

Semillon

100

94

103

106

Traminer

12

10

11

11

Verdelho

20

18

20

19

Total

757

660

750

787

Non-premium white

Crouchen

3

2

3

3

Doradillo

1

1

1

1

Palomino

0

0

0

1

Trebbiano

3

3

3

3

Total

7

6

7

7

Premium red

Cabernet Franc

4

3

4

4

Cabernet Sauvignon

258

225

259

264

Malbec

3

2

3

3

Merlot

125

110

124

125

Petit Verdot

24

20

24

22

Pinot Noir

44

34

37

40

Ruby Cabernet

19

17

19

19

Shiraz

442

384

435

449

Total

919

795

904

927

Non-premium red

Grenache

20

17

20

20

Mataro

8

7

8

8

Total

28

24

28

29

Multipurpose

57

48

59

78

Minor varieties

70

61

71

74

Total

1,837

1,594

1,819

1,902

Notes: Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: ABARE Research Report 09.7 March 2009

Table 9. Projected specialist winegrape production in Australia, by zone

Estimated production

Projected
production

07-08 kt

08-09 kt

09-10 kt

10-11 kt

South Australia

Barossa

86

71

92

93

Mount Lofty Ranges

68

64

61

69

Fleurieu

130

120

121

132

Limestone Coast

131

112

121

126

Lower Murray*

362

294

366

390

Other

1

1

1

1

Total

778

662

763

812

New South Wales & ACT

Hunter Valley

28

25

25

25

Big Rivers (excl. Murray-Darling)*

264

261

273

276

Central Ranges

63

52

58

58

Rest of NSW and ACT

21

18

19

19

Greater Victoria

Central

38

27

28

28

North East

25

18

24

24

Port Phillip

30

21

25

25

Rest of Victoria

11

8

10

11

Total

103

74

87

87

Other

Murray Valley*

359

309

367

374

Western Australia

81

72

84

85

Tasmania

11

8

9

9

Queensland

3

4

4

4

TOTAL specialist winegrapes

1,711

1,485

1,689

1,750

Notes: *Warm climate zones. Totals may not add due to rounding. Source: ABARE Research Report 09.7 March 2009